Oil prices spiked sharply following Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities (Operation Rising Lion) in the early hours of 13 June 2025. The market is rapidly pricing in fresh supply-risk premiums:
🔺 Brent Crude Futures:
+7% intraday âž” $74.46 after peaking at $78.50 (highest since January)
🔺 WTI Crude (US West Texas Intermediate):
+7.5% âž” $73.15 after peaking at $77.62
Geopolitical Shock:
Military escalation raises fears of supply disruptions, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz, where ~18–19M barrels/day of oil, condensate, and fuel transit.
SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye: “No production disruption yet, but risk remains elevated.”
Market Reaction:
Equities: Broad sell off as risk-off sentiment intensifies
Safe Havens: Gold and Swiss franc strengthen sharply
If transit lanes or production are hit, analysts warn oil could surge toward $120–130/barrel.
Continue reading our research
To continue reading the full note and explore the complete body of our work, visit the Research Library.