Trust in the System: Why Singapore’s Digital Banks are entering their payoff phase

Why Singapore?

• Singapore is considered as the most advanced and well-regulated digital-banking market in APAC. The first step has been the granting of full digital-bank licenses in 2020, mixing a technologically competent population with an important financial supervision from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The country’s ability to balance both innovation and stability has been considered as a reference for the other APAC countries.

• Singapore offers the opportunity to look over digital banks in a mature economy with transparent data, clear rules and measurable performance. This can be translated into an analysis of how new banking models scale in a low-inflation, policy-stable environment; and whether digital banks can evolve from experimental fintech units into profitable, so investable, assets.

Macroeconomic and policy environment

• GDP growth at +2.9% y/y (Q3 2025 e), down from +4.5% in Q2.

• Inflation: Core 0.3% y/y (Aug 2025); Headline 0.5% y/y.

• Benchmark funding costs: 1-month SORA dropped from about 3.15% in late-2024 to 1.30% by Q3 2025 (e), while 3-month SORA fell from roughly 3.37% to 1.45% (e).

• Monetary stance: FX-based policy unchanged since Jan 2025 easing (previous tightening Oct 2022).
• Digital-nation programs lower acquisition costs:
  • Smart Nation 2.0 (a national digitalization plan making online banking and digital services easier and more accessible for everyone);
  • FSTI 3.0 (a MAS grant program that funds financial institutions to develop AI, fintech, and cybersecurity innovations);
  • Digital Connectivity Blueprint (a national plan to build faster, safer digital networks that support real-time payments and cloud banking).
• Anti-scam regime lifts trust in digital channels (fraud losses industry-wide are projected to drop by 50 % by 2026).
  • EUPG of December 2024 (MAS guidelines that strengthen scam detection and protect customers from online payment fraud);
  • PSA amendments of April-October 2024 (updated payment regulations extending MAS oversight to crypto, cross-border, and custody services);
  • Online-Harms & Anti-Scam Bills of October 2025 (new laws imposing stricter penalties and stronger protections against digital scams).

Industry overview, Funding system and Scale

• Singapore hosts five digital banks (Trust Bank, GXS, MariBank, ANEXT, and GLDB), each serving a distinct segment of the market. Together, they show how Singapore’s model combines big-tech data, strong regulation, and disciplined capital.
  • Trust Bank, a joint venture between Standard Chartered and NTUC FairPrice, focuses on mass retail customers, offering daily banking, deposits, and credit cards tied to the NTUC loyalty network;
  • GXS Bank, backed by Grab and Singtel, combines consumer and SME lending, leveraging super-app data for transaction-based micro-loans and payments;
  • MariBank, owned by Sea Group (Shopee), targets e-commerce sellers and platform users, providing merchant credit and digital savings within its ecosystem;
  • ANEXT Bank, under Ant International, specialises in cross-border SME finance and trade-related payments, using Alipay data for risk assessment;
  • GLDB (Green Link Digital Bank), a partnership between Greenland Group and Linklogis, focuses on supply-chain financing and invoice-based lending;

• Among the group, Trust Bank best represents the market’s direction. Its performance sets the benchmark for the other digital banks in Singapore and in other APAC countries that will follow this lead.

Trust Bank adoption and scale data:

• Customers: 1.0 million (Feb 2025):

• Deposits: ~S$4.4 bn (Q4 2025 e), +100% y/y:

• Credit-card spend: > S$4 bn;
• Revenue, Operating Expenses, Operating Leverage:

Revenue has grown almost 150% year-on-year while operating expenses increased only around 4%, widening the gap between income and costs and signaling strong operating leverage.

Efficiency has improved sharply, with CIR falling from ~430% in 2023 to ~196% in 2024, moving closer and closer to the break-even target of 2026.

This improvement in efficiency is clearly reflected in the profit-and-loss trend over the past few years, where Trust Bank’s losses have steadily narrowed in line with the decline in its cost-to-income ratio:

End-Market Demand Links

• To understand what drives profitability beyond cost efficiency, we now look at real-economy demand through Singapore’s Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales trends.

• Manufacturing PMI
  • It reflects factory and export activity and acts as a proxy for SME loan demand and payment volumes. When manufacturing expands, SMEs borrow more, trade more, and move more money through digital platforms.;
  • PMI stayed just above the 50-point threshold for most of 2025, signaling a consistent expansion after the contraction seen in 2023;
  • Steady PMI readings confirm healthy business demand for financing and FX/payments services, directly benefiting ANEXT Bank and GLDB, the SME-focused digital lenders.

• Retail Sales
  • They show how much households are spending (so driving card usage, merchant payments, and deposit inflows);
  • Retail sales rose +4.6% YoY (Jul 2025) and +5.2% (Aug 2025), which represents the strongest pace since 2022, up from only 2-3% in 2023;
  • Strong consumer spending feeds directly into Trust Bank’s, GXS’s, and MariBank’s transaction-fee and savings flows, underpinning stable low-cost funding.

Investment Outlook

• Short term:
  • Trust Bank is positioned to be the first to reach profitability by FY 2026 (strong retail spending, low funding costs, CIR to reach 50% target);
  • ANEXT Bank continues to stand out in the SME and trade-finance segment (assets and loan volumes expanding rapidly);
  • Risks: higher compliance and technology costs as anti-scam rules take full effect, and slightly slower deposit growth as banks phase out promotional rates.
• Medium term:
  • Falling fraud losses and continued cost discipline should compress definitively CIR toward the 40-50 % profitability band;
  • ANEXT expected to maintain SME momentum while Trust consolidates profitability;
  • GXS Bank targets breakeven as SME lending scales up.
• Long term:
  • Integration of tokenized deposits and opening of new digital-asset settlement and revenue streams;
  • Singapore’s digital-banking blueprint is expected to be replicated in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

The Cordoba View

• Singapore’s digital banks are shifting from proof to profit, supported by low inflation, stable growth, and tighter regulation.
• Trust Bank remains the benchmark for profitability, while ANEXT, GXS, and MariBank follow the same scalable, data-driven model.
• Standard Chartered (Trust) and Ant International (ANEXT) are considered as the clearest near-term beneficiaries.

Sources: MTI Singapore; MAS; SingStat; SIPMM; Trust Bank FY 2024 Press Release (Feb 2025); Standard Chartered Annual Report 2024; Ant International (ANEXT Results 2024); Sea Ltd (MariBank updates 2025); Grab & Singtel (GXS announcements 2025); Reuters / CNA / The Business Times (MAS coverage).