The Reform Foundation
- Uzbekistan has spent the better part of a decade rebuilding its monetary credibility. The 2017 FX liberalisation, the subsequent adoption of inflation targeting, and the formalisation of macroprudential oversight under CBU Governor Timur Ishmetov have collectively transformed a currency once associated with capital controls and parallel markets into a credible store of value. Record foreign exchange reserves of $75bn provide the institutional ballast underpinning that shift.
The Transaction
- Against this backdrop, the UzNIF IPO represents the first genuine stress test of reform credibility. The National Investment Fund, valued at $1.93bn and holding minority stakes in 15 state-owned enterprises across banking, telecom and energy, is targeting a dual listing on the Tashkent and London Stock Exchanges, seeking to raise approximately $1.7bn. Franklin Templeton’s appointment as trustee and manager is not incidental; it functions as a reputational anchor, directly addressing the governance deficits that plagued Uzbekistan’s prior listings and left retail investors badly burned
The Risks
- Execution risk is material. Franklin Templeton must reform multiple SOEs simultaneously while meeting FCA listing requirements within a compressed timeline. Market conditions add further pressure: the LSE raised just £160m in H1 2025, its weakest issuance period in nearly three decades. The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions introduces a further headwind for a frontier market transaction of this scale.
The Cordoba View
- UzNIF is best understood not as a single transaction, but as a structural mechanism. A well-priced listing, likely at a discount to NAV, could establish a benchmark multiple for Uzbek assets, compress the country’s equity risk premium, and catalyse a broader pipeline of SOE privatisations. The full note examines the pricing framework, precedent analysis, and the conditions under which this transaction re-rates Uzbekistan as an investable market.
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