Brent crude oil spiked to an intraday high of $119 before reversing sharply to $105 on bearish news, such as Israeli PM Netanyahu’s support for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how rapidly this market trades on headlines in both directions.
- Israeli Strike on South Pars Gas Field: Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest offshore natural gas field, shared between Iran and Qatar, shutting down gas supplies and prompting Iran’s retaliatory escalation against Gulf energy infrastructure.
- Qatar LNG Damage: In direct retaliation for the South Pars strike, an Iranian missile struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, damaging approximately 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity. QatarEnergy’s CEO estimated a three to five year repair timeline, turning a temporary supply shock into structural damage as gas prices surge.
- Trump’s Warning to Israel and Iran: Trump instructed Netanyahu not to strike Iran’s gas field again, while simultaneously threatening to “massively blow up” South Pars himself if Iran continues its retaliatory attacks.
- Broader Gulf Energy Strikes: Additional Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) strikes hit a Saudi refinery on the Red Sea and two Kuwaiti oil refineries, compounding the supply disruption from Iran’s ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israeli Targets: Under the launch of wave 64 of Operation True Promise 4, the IRGC claimed strikes on Ben Gurion Airport and Haifa’s oil refineries, though the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) attributed the Haifa impacts to interception debris, and Israel’s Energy Minister said there was “no significant damage to infrastructure sites.”
- U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet: The IRGC reported that the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was targeted yet again with medium range missile systems (source: Al Mayadeen), continuing a pattern of repeated strikes on US naval positions.
- Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Tariff Proposal: Iran’s parliament is considering legislation to impose tolls and taxes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Lloyd’s List reports that at least one tanker has already paid approximately $2 million for IRGC-vetted passage through the water.
- International Coalition on Hormuz: The UK and six allied nations signed a joint statement expressing “readiness to contribute” to safe passage through the Strait and to begin “preparatory planning,” though countries including the UK, France, Germany, and Italy have all previously ruled out military involvement in the crisis.
- US Supply Side Response: Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US could order a second unilateral SPR release following last week’s historic 400 million barrel coordinated drawdown, and said Washington may remove sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently stranded on tankers to provide 10 to 14 days of additional global supply as per multiple sources.
- Market Outlook: IRGC has escalated the energy war from the Strait into Gulf oil and gas facilities, Israeli infrastructure, and US naval positions in a single day, but Brent’s $119 to $105 round trip signals that this market is trading fear and relief with equal magnitude.
Cordoba View: While $130 Brent is testable if escalation continues or coalition efforts stall, multiple supply side levers are being pulled simultaneously, and diplomatic channels on Strait transit are emerging. The sentiments continue to be mixed, with the EIA’s March forecast projecting prices falling below $80 by Q3, assuming Hormuz transit gradually normalises.
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