Is the Muslim NATO A Fascination?

What has Led to Here?

• Qatar has become the first gulf nation to ever have its national sovereignty violated by an ever-aggressive Isreal who conducted a military offensive, dropping a bomb on Hamas negotiators on Qatari territory, using the pretence of the war on Hamas. In the aftermath of this bombing, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a historic deal which guarantees defensive cooperation for Saudi if it is attacked in exchange for financing for the Pakistani military.

• Since this, there have been talks of a Muslim NATO style agreement however what we wish to uncover in this Cordoba note is whether this is truly likely or another idea that will not come to life. There are 3 main countries that this Cordoba report wants to focus on that would most likely make the inner circle of the Muslim NATO.  This is Turkey, the geopolitical hinge, Pakistan, the nuclear shield and SaudiArabia, the financial engine. 

What do we know?

• Turkey is a part of NATO and initially, they were just needed during the Cold War to contain Russia, but since Russian aggression in Ukraine, Ankara’s importance has only compounded. This was proven when Ankara struck a deal with Moscow to buy the Russian S-400 missile defence system. This was a huge provocation as NATO systems are supposed to be non-interoperable, and S-400s could potentially expose NATO aircraft data to Russia. The U.S. threatened sanctions and kicked Turkey out of the F-35 stealth jet program. Erdogan still refused to cancel the deal, even under U.S. pressure. Thus, by showing it would act independently, Turkey showed that they were not afraid to cross the US and NATO, and it is too strategically important for NATO to lose, as they are still needed for control over the Black Sea and containment of Russia. This could mean Turkey has the possibility of joining a Muslim NATO if they can diplomatically appease its European allies

• Despite Saudi signing security deals with Pakistan, they are still very reliant on CENTCOM due to the Iranian threat in the East. They cannot reduce US military reliance overnight, thus they would need to conceptualise a way to keep the US security guarantee if they were to join a Muslim NATO. If they cannot, then this could be the deciding factor for joining such an agreement, as their current defence treaty architecture is ideal. They have the Americans to protect them from the East and Pakistanis to protect them from Israel in the North. Thus, Riyadh will need to make a strategic decision as to whether a Muslim NATO would be valuable to them. A secondary problem is the power struggle they face from Ankara over being the leader of the Muslim world. This could be a potential fracturing point for both.

• Pakistan is pulled between Beijing and Riyadh. Pakistan’s main military and economic lifeline is China.  China have been crucial to the development of CPEC but also much energy infrastructure. They are also dependent on Saudi remittances (annually amounting to $6 billion) due to the large number of emigrant workers.  A second dependency on Saudi comes from loans, and bailouts which was best evidenced in 2018–2021, when Pakistan criticised Saudi handling of Kashmir and OIC diplomacy. Riyadh then withdrew $1 billion loan early to show their displeasure which meant that Pakistan had to scramble to repay this money early ultimatelystraining its already thin foreign reserves.

Cordoba’s View

• A Muslim NATO style agreement is not likely to happen because of problems derived mainly from Saudi and Pakistan. Saudi’s threat calculation is one that is currently appeased due to security guarantees from the US for Iran and Pakistan for Israel. A Muslim NATO could jeopardise this dual security architecture by alienating an already volatile American policy-making machine, which would respond by pulling its protection. Thus, rather than a Muslim NATO being advocated for, Saudi Arabia would push against it. If this is taken as true, then Pakistan’s reliance on Saudi Arabia for bailouts and remittances becomes a reason for them not to frustrate Riyadh or risk economic and political pressures.  Further, Pakistan will not want to alienate China, which might feel its rising hegemony threatened by a Muslim defence agreement.

• One final point to consider starting with Pakistan and then more broadly is the instability that many Muslim countries face. Pakistan’s military posture is centred around deterring India. Because many countries will not want to be a part of Pakistan’s war, they would not wish to have a collective defence agreement. Not even the current deal with Saudi Arabia extends to protection for Pakistan. Extending this reasoning to other Arab nations that have been at the centre of instability in the Middle East, such as Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, could also deter others from joining. Therefore, because Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are some of the core members needed, a Muslim NATO is more likely than not a fantasy.