Antimony Prices Spike as Pakistan Moves Into the Global Supply Race

As the US accelerates efforts to secure supply chains outside China. Prices for antimony trioxide have surged to around $40,000 per tonne, significantly higher than $26,000 in September 2024, driven by increased demand from industrial use and reduced exports from China. The decline is mainly due to mine closures and stricter environmental rules. Antimony is a strategically important metalloid, historically used since ancient times, and today is critical for defence, batteries, semiconductors, flame retardants, and metal alloys due to its unique fire-resistant and strengthening properties.

Rising geopolitical concerns over China’s control of strategic metals have pushed US defence linked buyers to source antimony from Pakistan and Central Asia, regions historically reliant on Chinese intermediaries normally being sold below market value. US companies are now offering premium prices to secure material, signalling a strategic shift in procurement priorities.

Pakistan, despite holding only ~1% of global reserves, is emerging as a potential player. Local producers have signed partnerships with US-linked firms, with initial shipments planned for testing and processing in Alaska. Tajikistan, the world’s second largest producer, is also benefiting from increased US engagement. China has approximately a third of global reserves whilst Russia has almost a fifth.

However, structural risks remain. Pakistan sits at the low end of the value chain, with minimal refining capacity, informal mining practices, and concerns around cross-border sourcing from Afghanistan. China’s continued dominance in smelting means supply security remains fragile.

Bottom line:

While prices have eased from recent peaks as substitution and new supply emerge, the US willingness to pay above market rates highlights a durable geopolitical premium. The key constraint in the future is not only mining, but the rapid development of Chinese alternative processing capacity.