Venezuela Enters a New Crisis

Security escalation raises energy and EM risk

• Reuters and CBS confirmed that the US military hit Caracas targets, including Fuerte Tiuna, early on January 3, 2026.
• President Trump claims Nicolás Maduro was captured and flown out to New York. Venezuelan state media has not confirmed this, and senior military figures have since issued statements stressing continuity of command and control over key state institutions.
• The FAA has banned all US commercial flights from the area due to active military operations and elevated security risks.
• Bloomberg and AP report tightened maritime enforcement on tankers operating near Venezuelan waters, while Brent crude continues to hold near $61 per barrel. Shipping data shows some tankers slowing or altering routes amid uncertainty around inspections and insurance coverage.
• While markets have not yet priced a full supply shock, traders appear to be treating the situation as a rising geopolitical risk premium rather than a confirmed disruption.
• On the ground, reports point to worsening cash shortages and fuel rationing in parts of Caracas and Maracaibo. Informal dollar usage has increased further in everyday transactions.
• The bolívar lost over 470 percent of its value last year, and black market exchange rates continue to pull away sharply from official ones, underlining the depth of Venezuela’s currency crisis.
• Regional governments have called for clarification, while international institutions have so far remained largely silent.
• Sources: Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CBS, Washington Post, Yahoo Finance.

The Cordoba View

• The situation is most likely to stabilise if the military prioritises securing oil fields and export infrastructure rather than being drawn into prolonged political confrontation. Control of energy assets remains the key variable for both domestic stability and external market impact.
• With the local currency under severe strain and dollar usage already widespread informally, a clearer move toward the US dollar may be the most practical way to prevent a deeper economic and humanitarian crisis.
• For markets, attention should remain on three fronts: (1) the credibility of leadership change claims, (2) the durability of military control over oil infrastructure, and (3) whether maritime enforcement evolves into a sustained constraint on exports.
• We will continue to provide updates as the situation develops. Any deterioration on these fronts would shift this from a political event into a broader energy and emerging market risk episode.
• Last updated: 4 January 2026, 22:12 GMT